Just before joining NHS in 2004, my last project was to examine the options for an international staffing agency already successful in other service industries eg hotels, oil rigs, etc; whether this provider should begin to provide staff for healthcare in UK (they already have recruitment offices in Pakistan, Philippines, China etc, all countries listed as legitimate recruitment sources).
This work covered the likely needs of NHS and independent healthcare provision in UK in terms of patient need, care pathways and potential changes to care pathways, the competencies to fulfil these including by volume, and current levels of staff and staff in training to learn these competencies. In addition to the desk analysis, I conducted a number of interviews, which were very revealing!
My report predicted that numbers of newly trained practitioners (especially of generic staff eg Junior doctors, Nurses) would increase over the following two years due to the substantial increase in training places for both doctors and nurses. This happened: through 2005 and early 2006 England complained of lack of staff and lack of service and continued to try to recruit from overseas. Then in mid 2006 the situation changed dramatically - nurses couldn't get jobs, and doctors complained that there were no places. Court cases raged as UK and European graduates demanded priority over candidates from India and other overseas locations. Our investment in additional student places had paid off, but for some reason NHS's workforce planning machine hadn't factored it in.
My report allowed the company to focus on more sustainably profitable economic sectors, where investment in this market would have brought them at most 12 months' of returns.